Start of the Season Round Table | The Heron Outlet
Ian, Alex, and Austin discuss the major storylines for Inter Miami to begin the 2023 season
photo courtesy of Inter Miami CF
Expectations continue to rise as Inter Miami begins its fourth season in MLS. After a 2022 campaign that saw the club finish 6th in the East and make the MLS Cup Playoffs for the first time in a non-expanded playoff season, Miami will look to return to the postseason and challenge for their first trophy.
To get set for the start of the 2023 season, The Heron Outlet’s Ian Hest, Alex Windley, and Austin Robillard sat down to discuss what to expect and what they predict this season will have in store.
Now that the preseason is over, what is the biggest storyline for Inter Miami heading into the 2023 season?
Ian: “Phil and Co. have made it clear…it’s time for success, being considered a top team, and that the goal is a home playoff match. The goalposts have sort of moved with the changes in playoff format just announced, but the premise is still the same. Miami thinks they’re better than what they’ve gotten credit for in the last few years under Neville. In 2022 they were picked by MLSSoccer.com to finish 12th in the East; they finished 6th and made the playoffs before Decision Day. This year, they’re still right there being picked 13th. This isn’t the same roster turnover as last year, so I think they have a big chip on their shoulder to start earning respect league-wide.”
Alex: “Whether or not they can take it to the next level. Finishing 6th in the East after the off-season they had last year was incredibly difficult and a testament to Phil Neville as a manager. This season, the main goal will be pushing on from that, possibly finishing top 4 and winning the US Open Cup.”
Austin: “I think it revolves around their midseason acquisitions. Not only will it be about who they’re in the running for, Messi, Busquets, etc., but also, where will they be in the standings when the transfer window opens? Can they stay afloat for the first twenty games of the season before another name comes in? All eyes should be on the first five games and if Neville breaks character and gets this team off to a hot start for the first time in his tenure with the club.”
Most of the national conversation this offseason surrounded the retirement of Gonzalo Higuain and the departure of Alejandro Pozuelo. How will Miami respond to those losses, and where will the production come from?
Alex: “For one, the national media don’t know the ins and outs of the club as local journalists do, hence why they’re being harsh with pre-season predictions. Two, Miami will replace that production with Josef, Stefanelli, and Campana. I know the whole ‘they don’t press!!’ narrative is popular right now, but it’s false.
Neither Higuain nor Pozuelo put any true defensive work in, and Miami still managed to finish 6th, even with the duo’s lackadaisical defending. From what we’ve seen in pre-season, in comparison, is that Josef, Campana, and Stefanelli are workhorses. They will press and put in a shift if needed. The midfield trio of Pizarro/Duke, Gregore, and Mota provides a good balance for the front three to attack. Miami will be well-balanced.”
Ian: “The challenge, Alex, will be how much will they have to rely on that balance in midfield. That’s going to be a massive workload in the middle of the park, more so than last year, and while Gregore and Mota have proven they’re repeatedly up for the task, there’s always that one other slot in the central midfield that I have my questions on. If the up top partners can relieve that pressure and produce goals, Miami will be able to be more of a team unit and play prettier.”
Austin: “The production has to come from the two strikers, Ian. If they combine week in and week out, it doesn’t matter who the “creators” behind or beside them in the formation are. These two guys have to be the ones producing, and rightfully the pressure is on both to do so. Pizarro’s expectations have plummeted. Can Steffanili be enough to change the dynamic of this attack? Not sure. But we know about Leo and Josef, and if they play to their potential, they’ll make up for the Higuain/Pozuelo absence.”
Phil Neville has shown he is comfortable adapting to multiple formations. Where does Inter Miami lineup best to start the season?
Austin: “One thing is certain; we should see a two-striker formation on opening day. Behind that could be a diamond, as we saw at the end of last year, or some variation of a 4-2-2-2. Getting the talent that was brought in to help this team is extremely important, and those two variants are the best way to do so. Keep combining Mota and Gregore, have Steffanili and Pizarro act as creators, and let Martinez and Campana finish things off upfront. Defensively, a backline of Yedlin, Negri, Kryvstov, and any other CB (probably McVey)… I am content.”
Alex: “It’ll be a 4-3-1-2, switching into a 4-2-3-1 depending on the situation. Their best lineup is when they can get both Josef and Campana on the pitch.”
Ian: “I agree the 4-3-1-2 is the preferred formation to start. We’ve seen in pre-season that the 4-2-3-1 is a great option when the midfield needs some assistance. But I still wonder if a 3-back option will be used at times this year. Miami should have the CB depth to do it and they definitely have the wingbacks. The challenge is who comes off to facilitate the change.”
What team in the Eastern Conference will make the biggest jump in 2023, and what team will regress?
Austin: “Toronto will have the biggest jump. From 13th in 2022 to a nice-looking roster in 2023 that hopefully has found some chemistry, they could be a playoff team inside the top-7 in the East. Regression? That will be NYCFC. They lost way too much (AND FOR FREE) in the offseason, and I do not think they’ll come close to where they were last year. They’ll end up a play-in-game team at best.”
Ian: “I see what you’re saying with NYCFC losing Maxi Moralez, Alexander Callens, and Sean Johnson (et al.) in the offseason. That’s a massive amount of talent out the door. I still think the biggest drop will be Montreal. It didn’t work for Hernan Losada in DC; they’re left with only one aging DP in Victor Wanyama and a system that was very much linked to the previous regime. I don’t think that lightning can strike twice for them, and I suspect a steep drop this season.”
Alex: “The biggest jump? Orlando City. They’ve added a ton of weapons this offseason, and they look solid. Who will regress? I’ll agree with Ian and Austin and say NYCFC and Montreal. Both squads lost key players that made them good last year. I do think they won’t be as potent as they were in 2022.”
Ian: “Orlando is certainly getting the most hype from their offseason. It’s a much-improved squad from the team that won the Open Cup and just snuck into the playoffs on Decision Day. But a congested schedule for them with added Concacaf Champions League games in addition to MLS, Open Cup, and Leagues Cup games could spell problems with a roster that may not be deep enough to handle all of that.”
What player will surprise fans the most in 2023?
Austin: “Franco Negri has the highest potential for surprising fans. His offensive output from left-back is nothing that Inter Miami fans have ever experienced on their side, and even defensively, I think he’s much better than many LBs we’ve seen over the years. His impact may not show fully in the numbers, but he will be a key reason why we see this team much more balanced in 2023 than ever.”
Alex: “Jake LaCava. Remember the name. The 22-year-old had a phenomenal season with the Tampa Bay Rowdies last season, scoring 12 goals and assisting five. He’s quick, still young, and has a high upside. He’ll give Miami something different off the bench compared to the hold-up play of Campana and the withdrawn attacking play of Josef.”
Ian: “Wow! Nicolas Stefanelli is just going to fall into my lap like that? Ok! No one has impressed more this pre-season. The 28-year-old Argentine is quick, cerebral, has a very possessive touch, and wants to go for goal. What he lacks in size, especially in a league like MLS, he makes up with his knack for the game, finding pockets and creative runs that will be a lovely complement to Campana and Josef.”
Where will Inter Miami finish the 2023 season?
Austin: “Sixth or fifth in the regular season, and given that teams get a guaranteed home match outside of the play-in round, Miami will win at least one playoff round… offseason reinforcements or not.”
Ian: “Outside of Philadelphia, I think the East is wide open. There is a huge group of teams that will finish 2-11 that could easily beat each other on any match day. I think Inter Miami is in that group, probably in the middle of that pack, but won’t be surprised if it goes one way or the other. I said on the pod that, with as good as they are at home, if they can get 20+ road points this season, they’ll finish Top 4 in the East. That’s yet to be seen, and winning on the road in MLS is a tough task. Fifth or sixth sounds about right. (Side note: Look for them to take the Cup competitions very seriously. There’s tremendous opportunity there.).”
Alex: “Well, they’ll definitely make the playoffs seeing as nine teams will be getting in this year. Where they’ll end up in that nine is the biggest question. I can see them finishing sixth again, maybe even higher, if their summer plans come to fruition. But, as the roster stands right now, sixth place.”